Death Timeline for Gaza Population (May 2, 2025 – June 2, 2025)

• May 2 – May 9 (Week 1: Days 8–14 of Total Deprivation)

  • Children (Under 5): 75,000–84,000 acutely malnourished children (25–28% of 300,000) die within 7–14 days due to starvation and dehydration. Assume 80% of these (60,000) die by May 9.
  • Elderly (65+): 50% of the elderly population (50,000 out of 100,000) die within 10–15 days, primarily due to dehydration and disease.
  • Adults (5–64): 5% of the sickest adults (80,000 out of 1.6 million) die early due to dehydration, disease, or pre-existing conditions.
  • Total Deaths: 60,000 (children) + 50,000 (elderly) + 80,000 (adults) = 190,000
  • Daily Death Rate: 190,000 ÷ 7 = ~27,000 deaths per day
  • Cumulative Deaths: 190,000 (9.5% of population)

• May 10 – May 16 (Week 2: Days 15–21 of Total Deprivation)

  • Children: The remaining 240,000 children (not initially acutely malnourished but still underweight) start dying. Assume 50% (120,000) die by May 16 due to starvation and dehydration.
  • Elderly: The remaining 50,000 elderly die by May 16, as they reach their survival limit.
  • Adults: More adults hit the 15–20 day mark of total deprivation. Assume 10% of adults (160,000 out of 1.6 million) die.
  • Total Deaths: 120,000 (children) + 50,000 (elderly) + 160,000 (adults) = 330,000
  • Daily Death Rate: 330,000 ÷ 7 = ~47,000 deaths per day
  • Cumulative Deaths: 190,000 + 330,000 = 520,000 (26% of population)

• May 17 – May 25 (Weeks 3–4: Days 22–30 of Total Deprivation)

  • Children: Most of the remaining 120,000 children die, as they exceed their survival limit. Assume 100,000 die.
  • Adults: The majority of adults hit their 20–30 day survival limit, given their pre-existing malnourished state. Assume 50% of the remaining 1.36 million adults (680,000) die.
  • Total Deaths: 100,000 (children) + 680,000 (adults) = 780,000
  • Daily Death Rate: 780,000 ÷ 9 = ~86,000 deaths per day
  • Cumulative Deaths: 520,000 + 780,000 = 1,300,000 (65% of population)

• May 26 – June 2 (Final Week: Days 31–38 of Total Deprivation)

  • Adults: The remaining adults (680,000) continue to die as they reach 30–40 days without food. Assume 70% (476,000) die.
  • Total Deaths: 476,000
  • Daily Death Rate: 476,000 ÷ 7 = ~68,000 deaths per day
  • Cumulative Deaths: 1,300,000 + 476,000 = 1,776,000 (88.8% of population)

Summary

• Total Deaths by June 2, 2025: 1,776,000
• Percentage of Population: 88.8% (1,776,000 ÷ 2,000,000)
• Peak Daily Death Rate: ~86,000 deaths per day (May 17–May 25)

Why I am posting this? So nobody can say "we didn't know".